Date: June 17, 2025
⚠️ Geopolitical Context
- On June 13, Israel struck Iranian nuclear and IRGC military sites, reportedly killing senior commanders, including IRGC chief Salami.
- Between June 14–16, Iran fired over 150 ballistic missiles and drones targeting Israel; most were intercepted, but civilian casualties occurred.
- Iran has renewed its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which ~20% of global oil transits.
🪙 Gold: Surging on Safe-Haven Demand
Gold prices jumped to a nearly two-month high. Although it briefly eased to ~$3,393, bullion remains elevated above $3,400 as investors react to geopolitical uncertainty and fears of inflation pressure.
Outlook:
- Support zone: $3,300–$3,400 (50-day EMA)
- Resistance: ~$3,500 — watch for consolidation or breakout based on coming news
🛢️ Oil: Flash Volatility Amid Supply Risk
Following the June 13 strikes, Brent surged ~11% to ~$74 before stabilizing near $73–74, while WTI rose ~7% to ~$70–72. Analysts warn oil may reach $100–150 if the Strait sees disruption, although current sanctions and supply boosters could ease pressure later this year.
Outlook:
- Key support: WTI $70–71, Brent $73–74
- Scalpers can target tight trades when markets react to news, with stops just outside support zones
💱 Forex: Safe-Haven Flow Strengthens USD and JPY
The U.S. Dollar has strengthened with USD/JPY up ~0.4% to ~144.65 and EUR/USD down to ~1.1532 as investors de-risk. The Federal Reserve’s likely pause on rate cuts is reinforcing dollar demand amid elevated oil prices and inflation risk.
Key Levels:
- USD/JPY support: 143.90–145.00
- EUR/USD resistance: ~1.1575, support: ~1.1530
📊 Trading Strategies
Short-Term:
- Gold: Buy near $3,400 with stop just below $3,300; target $3,500–$3,550
- Oil: Long WTI on dips to $70–71; tight stop under $68
- FX: Go long USD/JPY with stop under 143.9; avoid leverage spikes
Mid-Term:
- Watch diplomatic developments around the Strait of Hormuz
- Monitor central bank tone — Fed, ECB — to assess inflation impact
- Look for gold pullbacks if tensions ease; oil vulnerable to overbought retracement
🧠 Summary
This is not just a temporary reaction — markets are beginning to price in sustained strategic risk. Safe-haven demand is up, inflation hedging is back, and volatility is surging.
Traders should focus on solid technical zones, avoid emotional entries, and size positions according to risk — not fear.
📅 Published: June 17, 2025 — by MZPrimer